German schoolboy, 13, corrects NASA's asteroid figures: paper
Tue Apr 15, 5:44 PM ET
BERLIN (AFP) - A 13-year-old German schoolboy corrected NASA's estimates on the chances of an asteroid colliding with Earth, a German newspaper reported Tuesday, after spotting the boffins had miscalculated.
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Nico Marquardt used telescopic findings from the Institute of Astrophysics in Potsdam (AIP) to calculate that there was a 1 in 450 chance that the Apophis asteroid will collide with Earth, the Potsdamer Neuerster Nachrichten reported.
NASA had previously estimated the chances at only 1 in 45,000 but told its sister organisation, the European Space Agency (ESA), that the young whizzkid had got it right.
The schoolboy took into consideration the risk of Apophis running into one or more of the 40,000 satellites orbiting Earth during its path close to the planet on April 13 2029.
Those satellites travel at 3.07 kilometres a second (1.9 miles), at up to 35,880 kilometres above earth -- and the Apophis asteroid will pass by earth at a distance of 32,500 kilometres.
If the asteroid strikes a satellite in 2029, that will change its trajectory making it hit earth on its next orbit in 2036.
Both NASA and Marquardt agree that if the asteroid does collide with earth, it will create a ball of iron and iridium 320 metres (1049 feet) wide and weighing 200 billion tonnes, which will crash into the Atlantic Ocean.
The shockwaves from that would create huge tsunami waves, destroying both coastlines and inland areas, whilst creating a thick cloud of dust that would darken the skies indefinitely.
The 13-year old made his discovery as part of a regional science competition for which he submitted a project entitled: "Apophis -- The Killer Astroid."
Boy, 13, Corrects NASA
Moderator: Priests of Syrinx
Boy, 13, Corrects NASA
Onward and Upward!
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Sir Myghin
- Posts: 9148
- Joined: Thu Nov 13, 2003 10:12 pm
- Location: Ontario, Canada
you mean .002% chance of death in 2029. the fact that NASA was 'off' by a factor of 1000 seems more to me like they just wanted people to be more comfy, .002 isn't something I shall lose sleep over haha.ElfDude wrote:Yeah. And when! Death in 2029? Sounds pretty good to me.Me wrote:At least we would know how we are going to die.
Sir Myghin wrote:you mean .002% chance of death in 2029. the fact that NASA was 'off' by a factor of 1000 seems more to me like they just wanted people to be more comfy, .002 isn't something I shall lose sleep over haha.ElfDude wrote:Yeah. And when! Death in 2029? Sounds pretty good to me.Me wrote:At least we would know how we are going to die.
I'll be 69 in 2029. I do believe my chances of dying will be considerably more than .002%....hahaha
of course, I could be hit by a truck as I cross the street TODAY, so probability doesn't mean much to me these days. hahaha
Moral: Live like it's your last day EVERY DAY.
Don't start none...won't be none.
And remember to keep your units (English or metric) the same.awip2062 wrote:hehehe
I guess we all make mistakes, eh?
*in her teacher's voice at the write-on, wipe-off board*
Now remember, kiddies, where you put that decimal is going to matter a whooooooooooole lot.
Thats what killed the first Mars rover, they used both in their equations...
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LisaBug2112
- Posts: 371
- Joined: Tue Apr 20, 2004 1:36 pm
- Location: Rogers, AR
In 2029 it may hit a satalite not earth. It is suposed to hit earth in 2036, so gives us a bit longer. 
"Like a flower in the desert that only blooms at night i will quietly resist I dont have faith in faith i dont believe in beliefs you can call me faithless i still kling to hope & i believe in love and thats faith enough for me."
